Kakao Technische Analyse - Kakao Handel: 2019-09-09

Cocoa Tree Disease in West Africa

Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana lowered its forecast for cocoa harvest in Ghana by 11% due to the viral disease of the trees Cacao swollen-shoot virus (CSSV). Will the cocoa quotations grow?

On the daily timeframe Cocoa: D1 could not break the lower bound of a long-term uptrend. Now it is adjusted up. Various technical analysis indicators have generated signals to increase. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of bad weather and a reduction in world crop .

• The Parabolic indicator demonstrates a signal to increase.
• The Bolinger bands widened, indicating high volatility. The bottom line of the Bollinger has a slope up.
• TheRSI indicator is above the mark of 50. Divergence is not observed.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop if Cocoa exceeds the last upper fractal: 2290. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop lose may be placed below the last two lower fractals and the Parabolic signal: 2160. After opening the pending order, stop shall be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (2160) without reaching the order (2290), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary